課程資訊
課程名稱
中共國防政策專題
SEMINAR ON THE DEFENSE POLICY OF MAINLAND CHINA 
開課學期
98-1 
授課對象
社會科學院  政治學研究所  
授課教師
陳世民 
課號
PS5038 
課程識別碼
322 U1610 
班次
 
學分
全/半年
半年 
必/選修
選修 
上課時間
星期五5,6(12:20~14:10) 
上課地點
社科研1 
備註
國際關係,本國政治,比較政治。
限學士班三年級以上
總人數上限:15人
外系人數限制:5人 
Ceiba 課程網頁
http://ceiba.ntu.edu.tw/981PRC_DEF 
課程簡介影片
 
核心能力關聯
核心能力與課程規劃關聯圖
課程大綱
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課程概述

一、 課程說明、中共國防與外交政策的分析架構
二、外交、戰略環境與威脅評估的演變
中共和美國、俄國、東亞(日、韓、東南亞)、南亞(印、巴)關係之演變
三、國防、外交決策過程與中共軍、政體系,軍政關係
四、 軍事思想的演變
1. 中共的戰略文化
2. 毛澤東的「人民戰爭」思想
3. 鄧小平時期「人民戰爭」思想的演變:「現代條件下的人民戰爭」思想
4. 波灣戰後中共對「軍事事務革命」的看法:「高技術條件下的局部戰爭」思想
五、軍事武力的發展及其現代化
1. 傳統武力
2. 核武
六、 核戰略與核軍控議題
1. 核戰略的演變
2. 核軍控立場的演變
3. 對「反飛彈防禦」的看法
七、中共軍事現代化與東亞安全(尤其是台灣安全)
 

課程目標
面對中共的威脅,對中共國防與外交政策的認識與了解,實有助於學生對兩岸關係及國家安全問題的探討。本課程希望透過一、二手文獻的導讀,與各重要議題的分析探討,培養學生獨立研究與分析中共外交、軍事問題的能力,尤其著重訓練同學蒐集資料並予以組織分析的能力。 
課程要求
1.上課出席、閱讀教材與積極參與討論 20%
2. 學期論文口頭報告 20% (為確保研究報告的順利進行,學生須在第八週(11/6)前選定題目,並繳交一份五百字報告大綱,說明研究計劃與資料來源,並經老師同意。大綱將列入期末報告成績計算。寫作格式與要求重點,將在於課堂中詳細說明)
3. 學期論文 60 %
 
預期每週課後學習時數
 
Office Hours
每週五 15:20~17:20 
參考書目
一、課程說明、中共國防政策的分析架構
Yuan, Jing-Dong: “Studying Chinese Security Policy”: Toward an Analytic Framework” The Journal of East Asian Affairs V.13 N.1 1999 Spr./Sum. pp.131-195
Dreyer, June Teufel: “State of the Field Report: Research on the Chinese Military” Assess Asia Review Summer 1997 V.1 N.1 pp. 7-34

二、戰略環境與威脅評估的演變
國務院新聞辦公室 (1998, 2000, 2002 2004, 2006, 2008),《中國的國防》,北京:國務院新聞辦公室。---第一章 安全形势
Scobell, Andrew ; Wortzel, Larry M. eds. Shaping China's Security Environment: The Role of the People's Liberation Army , Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, October 2006 www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub709.pdf
Comparative Connections: A Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations, Pacific Forum CSIS, Honolulu, Hawaii 2000-2009, www.csis.org/pacfor/ccejournal.html
Pillsbury, Michael: China Debates the Future Security Environment National Defense university Press, January 2000 cha:7 (中譯本: 高一中譯: 中共對未來安全環境的辯論 , 臺北市 : 史政編譯局, 民90) http://www.fas.org./nuke/guide/china/doctrine/pills2/index.html
中國現代國際關係研究所編,《國際戰略與安全形勢評估》,北京:時事出版社。
軍事科學院戰略研究部,《200?年版戰略評估》,北京:軍事科學出版社。
國防大學戰略研究所,《200?-200?國際戰略形勢分析》,北京:國防大學出版社。
楊毅主編,《200?-200?國際戰略形勢分析》,北京:國防大學出版社。
National Institute for Defense Studies, ed. , “The Realignment of US Forces and the East Asian Security”in East Asian Strategic Review 2006, Chapter 1 pp. 11-34. http://www.nids.go.jp/english/dissemination/east-asian/e2006.html
Department of Defense (U.S.A.). The United States Security Strategy For The East Asia-Pacific Region 1998, . http://www.shaps.hawaii.edu/security/easr98.html

三、國防決策過程與中共軍、政體系,軍政關係
約翰W. 劉易斯(John W. Lewis),薛理泰著; 薛理泰編譯,《中國軍事決策機制及台灣衝突》,香港: 明鏡出版社, 2007
Lampton, David M. ed. The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform, 1978-2000 Stanford, Calif: Stanford University Press, 2001
Swaine, Michael D.: The Role of Chinese Military in National Security Policy Making Santa Monica, Calif.: Rand Corportation, 1996.
Robert S. Ross, Chinese security policy : structure, power and politics, London ; New York : Routledge, 2009.

四、軍事思想的演變
毛澤東:「中國革命戰爭的戰略問題」毛澤東選集,第一卷,北京:人民出版社,1990年版,頁一五四∼二二五。
--- :「抗日游擊戰爭的戰略問題」、前書,第二卷,頁三七三∼四O六。
---:「論持久戰」,前書,第二卷,頁四O七∼四八四。
林彪:人民戰爭勝利萬歲,北京:人民出版社,1965年。(國關中心有)
丁樹範:中共軍事思想的發展 1978~1991,台北:唐山,民八五。pp.49-142
張萬年編(1999),《當代世界軍事與中國國防》,北京:軍事科學出版社。
熊光楷(2003),《國際戰略與新軍事變革》,北京:清華大學出版社。
國務院新聞辦公室 (1998-2008),《中國的國防》,北京:國務院新聞辦公室。
彭光謙、王光緒等編 (1989),《軍事戰略簡論》,北京:解放軍出版社。
軍事科學院戰略研究部(2001),《戰略學》,北京:軍事科學出版社。
U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Report on the Military Power of PRC, 2009, Cha. 2: China’s Military Strategy and Doctrine , http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf
John Wilson Lewis and Xue Litai, Imagined enemies : China prepares for uncertain war, Stanford, Calif. : Stanford University Press, 2006.
Ka Po Ng, Interpreting China's military power : doctrine makes readiness, London ; New York : Frank Cass, 2005.

五、中共的「新安全觀」---改變了現實主義的國防政策?
Bates Gill, “China’s New Security Multilateralism and Its Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region,” in SIPRI Yearbook 2004: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004), pp. 207-231.
Bates Gill, Rising star : China's new security diplomacy, Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, 2007
Fukushima, Akiko : Multilateralism and Security Cooperation with China, Washington: The Henry L. Stimson Center 2002

六、軍事武力的發展及其現代化
中華民國國防報告書 http://www.mnd.gov.tw/report/index1.htm
U.S. Department of Defense (2000-2009), Annual Report on the Military Power of PRC.
中華民國國防部,98年中共軍力報告書。
各國國防白皮書
日本防衛廳防衛研究所,《東亞戰略概觀》,台北:國防部史政編譯局。
China Air Force Handbook : strategy, composition, weapon systems, Washington, DC: International Business Publications, USA, 2008
Scobell, Andrew and Larry M. Wortzel, eds.(2002), China’s Growing Military Power: Perspectives on Security, Ballistic Missiles, and conventional capabilities, (U.S. Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute).
Shambaugh, David L. (2002), Modernizing China’s Military: Progress, Problem, and Prospects, (California: University of California Press). 沈大偉 (David Shambaugh)著; 高一中翻譯,《現代化中共軍力 : 進展、問題與前景》,臺北: 史政編譯室, 2004。
John J. Tkacik, Jr., “China’s Quest for a Superpower Military”, Backgrounder, N. 2036, Washington, DC: The Heritage Foundation (May 17, 2007). www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub709.pdf.
Harold Brown, Joseph W. Prueher and Adam Segal, Chinese Military Power, (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 2003)
Bernard D. Cole著; 翟文中,羅倩宜譯,《海上長城 : 走向廿一世紀的中國海軍》,桃園縣中壢市 : 老戰友文化出版 臺北 : 勤力國際總經銷, 2006。
Ronald O'Rourke, China naval modernization : implications for U.S. Navy capabilities, New York : Nova Science Publishers, July, 17, 2009. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33153.pdf
Andrew S. Erickson et al. , China's future nuclear submarine force, Annapolis, Md. : Naval Institute Press, 2007.
Peter Howarth, China's rising sea power : the PLA Navy's submarine challenge, London ; New York, NY : Frank Cass, 2006.

七、核戰略與核軍控議題

國務院新聞辦公室, 《中國的軍控、裁軍與防擴散努力》白皮書, 2005/09/01, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/wjb/zzjg/jks/jksxwlb/t209578.htm
Medeiros, Evan S. , “Evolving Nuclear Doctrine” in Bolt, Paul J. & Albert S. Willner, China's nuclear future, Boulder, Colo. : Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2006. pp. 39-78.
Wortzel, Larry M. , China's Nuclear Forces: Operations, Training, Doctrine, Command, Control and Campaign Planning , Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College (May 2007) www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=776
Tompkins, Joanne (2003), “How U.S. Strategic Policy Is Changing China’s Nuclear Plans” Arms Control Today January/February.
Alan D. Romberg and Michael McDevitt, eds., China and Missile Defense: Managing-U.S. PRC Strategic Relations, (Washington, D.C.: The Henry L. Stimson Center, 2003) pp. 1-37 (有中文版, 國防部史政編譯局譯) http://www.stimson.org/pub.cfm?id=73
Roberts, Brad (2001), China-U.S. Nuclear Relations: What Relationship Best Serves U.S. Interests? Institute for Defense Analysis.
Manning, Robert A., Montaperto, Ronald Cochairs and Brad Roberts (2000), China, Nuclear Weapons, and Arms Control: A Preliminary Assessment, (New York: Council on Foreign Relations).
林中斌:核霸,台北:學生,民八八
Tow, William T. and William Choong (2001) “Asian perceptions of BMD : defence or desequilibrium?”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, vol.23:n°3, pp.379-400.
Medeiros, Evan S. (2001) Ballistic Missile Defense and Northeast Asian Security: Views from Washington, Beijing, and Tokyo (California: Monterey Institute of International Studies & Iowa: The Stanley Foundation)
Frieman, Wendy , China, arms control, and nonproliferation, London ; New York : RoutledgeCurzon, 2004.

八、中共軍事現代化與東亞安全(尤其是台灣安全)

Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies : Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) in Northeast Asia: An Annotated Chronology, 1990-2003 California: Monterey Institute of International Studies, East Asia Nonproliferation Program, http://cns.miis.edu/research/neasia/bmdchron.pdf , (中文版1990-2000) http://cns.miis.edu/research/neasia/bmdchi.pdf
Cimbala, Stephen J.. “Nuclear proliferation in Asia and missile defense”, Comparative Strategy, (2005-10/11)vol.24:n°4, p.313-326
Victor D. Cha, “Nuclear Weapons, Missile Defense, and Stability: A Case for ‘Sober Optimism’,” in Muthiah Alagappa, ed., Asian Security Order: Instrumental and Normative Features (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2003), pp.458-496
Swaine, Michael & Mulvenon James: Taiwan’s Foreign and Defense Policies: Features and Determinants Rand, 2001
Christensen, Thomas J., “The contemporary security dilemma : deterring a Taiwan conflict”, Washington Quarterly, (2002,Autumn), vol.25 :n°4, p.7-21
Lee,Wei-chin: “Thunder in the Air: Taiwan and Theater Missile Defense” Nonproliferation Review V.8 N.3 fall/winter 2001, pp.107-122.
Ross, Robert S. (2002), “Navigating the Taiwan strait: deterrence escalation dominance, and U.S-China relations”, International Security, Fall, vol.27: n°2, pp.48-85.
O'Neil, Andrew , Nuclear proliferation in Northeast Asia : the quest for security , New York, NY : Palgrave Macmillan, 2007
Ting, Wei , “The Potential Flashpoint: Taiwan” in Bolt, Paul J. & Albert S. Willner, China's nuclear future, Boulder, Colo. : Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2006. pp. 143-166
Llewelyn Hughes, “Why Japan Will Not Go Nuclear (Yet): International and Domestic Constraints on the Nuclearization of Japan” International Security Spring 2007, Vol. 31, No. 4: 67-96
Cole, Bernard D. , Taiwan’s Security: History and prospects, N. Y. : Routledge, 2006.
Edmonds, Martin and Michael Tsai eds. , Defending Taiwan : the future vision of Taiwan's defence policy and military strategy, New York, NY : RoutledgeCurzon, 2003
Roger Cliff et al., Entering the dragon's lair : Chinese antiaccess strategies and their implications for the United States, Santa Monica, CA : RAND Corp., 2007. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2007/RAND_MG524.pdf

 
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