課程資訊
課程名稱
輿情分析與選舉研究專題
Seminar on Public Opinion and Election Studies 
開課學期
110-1 
授課對象
社會科學院  政治學系  
授課教師
張佑宗 
課號
PS5708 
課程識別碼
322 U2440 
班次
 
學分
3.0 
全/半年
半年 
必/選修
選修 
上課時間
星期一2,3,4(9:10~12:10) 
上課地點
社科507 
備註
限學士班三年級以上
總人數上限:25人
外系人數限制:10人 
Ceiba 課程網頁
http://ceiba.ntu.edu.tw/1101PS5708_ 
課程簡介影片
 
核心能力關聯
本課程尚未建立核心能力關連
課程大綱
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課程概述

從1940年代開始,Lazarsfeld, Berelson等人即開始有系統地研究選民的投票行為,至今已超過半個世紀,累積了非常豐富的理論、研究方法與經驗資料。本課程的目標就是要介紹這些重要且有趣的經驗理論與研究發現,期望同學將來能熟悉各種選舉研究的方法,以及利用各項選舉研究的資料庫。

Week 1:Introduction
Week 2:Historical Perspectives
Week 3:Theoretical Approaches to the Study of Voting Behavior
Week 4:The Nature of Public Opinion
Week 5:Voting Turnout
Week 6:Party Identity and its Change
Week 7:專題演講
Week 8:Issue Voting
Week 9:專題演講
Week 10:Candidate Evaluation
Week 11:Social Cleavages
Week 12:Ticket Splitting and Strategic Voting
Week 13:Dealignment, Realignment, and Cleavage Mobilization
Week 14: Party Nationalization
Week 15:Polarization
Week 16:Negative Partisanship(I)
Week 17:Negative Partisanship(II)
Week 18: 繳交期末報告 

課程目標
本課程的重點,將分成二個部分。第一個部分是從選民的角度出發,探討民意的本質與投票行為,例如對選民認知能力的假定,影響投票抉擇的因素,包括選民個人的經社背景、團體認同(主要是政黨認同、括階級投票與族群認同)、議題取向、候選人評價與社會關係網絡對投票抉擇的影響,還有策略性與分裂投票的問題,最後提及政黨的解組與重構過程。第二個部分是從選舉制度的角度出發,探討各種選舉制度的設計,以及選舉制度的後果。 
課程要求
成績評量方式與標準
(請說明各項評量項目內容設計、比例及標準)Grading
口頭報告與期末報告遲交者將被扣分。課程評分方式,參與課堂討論佔學期總分20%,文章摘要佔學期總分的40%,期末報告佔學期總分40%。


本課程對學生課後學習之要求
Requirements for students after the class: 所有選課同學必需先閱讀每週指定的文獻、準時上課、關掉手機,並積極參與課堂討論。本課程每週將指定同學準備一份文章摘要,把指定閱讀文章的問題意識、理論觀點、資料分析技巧及個人評論做扼要說明,並接受老師和同學的提問。摘要需在每週上課前一天中午12點前,e-mail給老師和同學參考。期末要繳交一份書面報告,選定課堂某一討論主題,作更廣與深的文獻檢閱及與分析。第五周時繳交期末報告的題目與大綱,課程結束後一周繳交完整的期末報告(約8000字左右)。 
預期每週課後學習時數
 
Office Hours
 
參考書目
一、 指定閱讀(請詳述每週指定閱讀) Required readings

第一週:Introduction

第二週:Historical Perspectives
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., William G. Jacoby, Helmut Norpoth and Herbert Weisberg. 2008. The American Voter Revisited. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan University Press. Pp. 3-18.
Heath, Anthony, Stephen Fisher, and Shawna Smith. 2005. “The Globalization of Public Opinion research.” Annual Review of Political Science, 8: 297-333.

*Niemi, Richard G. and Herbert F. Weisberg. 2001. “The Study of Voting and Election.” In Controversies in Voting Behavior, 4nd eds. Richard G. Niemi and Herbert F. Weisberg. Washington, D. C.: CQ Press. Pp1-21.
*McGuire, William. 2001. “After a Half Century of Election Studies: Whence, Where, and Whither?” In Election Studies: What’s Their Use? eds. Elihu Katz and Yael Warshel. Boulder: Westview Press. Pp15-57.
*Lipset, Seymour M. 2001. “An Historical Context for Election Research.” In Election Studies: What’s Their Use? eds. Elihu Katz and Yael Warshel. Boulder: Westview Press. Pp111-26.
*陳義彥,2003,”台灣選舉行為調查研究的回顧與展望”,選舉研究,第10卷,第1期,頁1-6。

第三週:Theoretical Approaches to the Study of Voting Behavior
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., William G. Jacoby, Helmut Norpoth and Herbert Weisberg. 2008. The American Voter Revisited. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan University Press. Pp. 19-28.
Arzheimer, Kai and Jocelyn Evans. 2008. The Evolving Study of Electoral Behavior.” In Electoral Behavior, Vol. I, eds. Kai Arzheimer and Jocelyn Evans. London: Sage. Pp. xix-xlvii.
Heath, Anthony. 2007. “Perspectives on Electoral Behavior.” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, eds. Russell J. Dalton and Hans-Dieter Klingemann. New York: Oxford University Press. Pp. 610-620.

*Dalton, Russell J. and Martin P. Wattenberg. 1993. “The not so Simple Act of Voting.” In Political Science: The State of the Discipline II, ed.Washington, D. C.: The American Political Science Association. Pp. 193-218.
*Geer, John G.(ed.). 2004. Public Opinion and Polling around the World. Part 1, Section one, Pp. 3-32.
*Bartels, Larry M. 2001. “An agenda for Voting Research.” In Election Studies: What’s Their Use? eds. Elihu Katz and Yael Warshel. Boulder: Westview Press. Pp59-81.
*Lazarsfeld, Paul., Bernard Berelson, and Hazel Gaudet. 1968, third ed. The People Choice: How the Voter Makes Up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign. New York: Columbia University Press. Preface: vi-xl.
*Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes. 1960. The American Voter. New York: Wiley. Ch. 2.
*Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economy Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row. Ch. 3.
*陳義彥,1986。”我國投票行為研究的回顧與展望”。思語言,23卷6期。頁557-585。
*游盈隆,1984。 “投票行為研究的緣起與發展”,東吳政治學報,第八期。

第四週:The Nature of Public Opinion
Kinder, Donald R. 2003. “Belief System after Converse.” In Electoral Democracy, eds. Michael B. MacKuen and George Rabinowitz. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press. Pp: 13-47.
Kuklinski, James H. and Buddy Peyton. 2007. “Belief Systems and Political Decision Making.” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, eds. Russell J. Dalton and Hans-Dieter Klingemann. New York: Oxford University Press. Pp. 45-64.
Dalton, Russell. 2021. “The Representation Gap and Political Sophistication: A Contrarian Perspective.” Comparative Political Studies, 54(5)889-917.

*Zaller, John. 2003. “Coming to Grips with V.O. Key’s Concept of Latent Opinion.” In Electoral Democracy, eds. Michael B. MacKuen and George Rabinowitz. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press. Pp: 311-336.

*Sniderman, Paul. A. 1993. “The New Look in Public Opinion Research.” In Ada W. Finifter, ed. Political Science: The State of the Discipline II. Washington, D. C.: The American Political Science Association. Pp. 219-246.
*Zaller, John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. New York: Cambridge University Press. Ch. 2.
*Alvarez, R. Michael and John Brehm. 2002. Hard Choices, Easy Answers. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Ch. 2-4.

第五週(3/25):Voting Turnout
Niemi, Richard G. and Herbert F. Weisberg, 2001. “Why Is Voter Turnout Low( And Why Is It Decline)?. In Controversies in Voting Behavior, 4nd eds. Richard G. Niemi and Herbert F. Weisberg. Washington, D. C.: CQ Press. Pp. 22-37.
Dettrey, Bryan and Leslie A. Schwindt-Bayer. 2009. “Voter Turnout in Presidential Democracies.” Comparative Political Studies, 41(10): 1317-1338.

*Cox, Gary W., Frances M. Rosenbluth, and Michael F. Theis. 1998. “Mobilization, Social Network, and Turnout: Evidence from Japan.” World Politics 50: 447-74.
*Fornos, Carolina A. Timothy J. Power, and James C. Garand. 2004. “Explaining Voter Turnout in Latin America, 1980 to 2000.” Comparative Political Studies, 37(8): 909-940.
*Fiorina, Morris P. 2002. “Parties, Participation, and Representation in America: Old Theories Face New Reality.” In Ira Katznelson and Helen V. Milner, eds., Political Science: State of the Discipline. Washington, D. C.: The American Political Science Association. Pp. 511-541.
*Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economy Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row. Ch. 14.
*Powell, G. Bingham. 1986. “American Voter Turnout in Comparative.” American Political Science Review 80: 17-43.
*Rosentone, Steven J. and John Mark Hansen1993. Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in American. New York: Macmillan. Ch. 3 & 6.

第六週(4/1):Party Identity and its Change
Holmberg, Soren. 2007. “Partisanship Reconsidered.” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, eds. Russell J. Dalton and Hans-Dieter Klingemann. New York: Oxford University Press. Pp. 557-570.
Erickson, Robert S., Michael B MAcKuen and James A. Stimson. 2001. “Macropartisanship: The Permanent Memory of Partisan Evaluation.” In Controversies in Voting Behavior, 4nd eds. Richard G. Niemi and Herbert F. Weisberg. Washington, D. C.: CQ Press. Pp364-370.

*Miller, Warren E. and J. Merrill Sharks. 1996. The New American Voter. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Ch. 6.
*Weisberg, Herbert F. and Steven H. Greene, 2003. “The Political Psychology of Party Identification.” In Electoral Democracy, eds. Michael B. MacKuen and George Rabinowitz. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press. Pp: 83-124.
*Dalton, Russell J. and Martin P. Wattenberg(eds.). 2000. Parties without Partisans: Political Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Ch1, 12.
*Niemi, Richard G. and Herbert F. Weisberg (eds.), 1993. Classics in Voting Behavior. Pp. 224-283.
* MacKuen, Michael B., Robert S. Erickson, and James A. Stimson. 1989. “Macropartisanship.” American Political science Review 83(4): 1125-1142.

第七週(4/8):專題演講

第八週(4/15):Issue Voting
Shank, Merrill. 2001. “What about Issues?” In Election Studies: What’s Their Use? eds. Elihu Katz and Yael Warshel. Boulder: Westview Press. Pp173-217.
Macdonald, Stuart E., George Rabinnowitz, and Holly Brasher. 2003. “Policy Issues and Electoral Democracy.” In Electoral Democracy, eds. Michael B. MacKuen and George Rabinowitz. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press. Pp: 172-99.

*Dalton, Russell J. 2002. “Political Cleavage, Issues, and Electoral Change.” In Comparing Democracy 2: New Challenge in the Study of Elections and Voting, eds. Lawrence LeDuc, Rechard G. Niemi, and Pippa Norris. London: Sage. Pp: 189-209.
*Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes. 1960. The American Voter. New York: Wiley. Ch. 6.
*Carmines, Edward G. and James A. Stimson. 1980. “The Two Faces of Issue Voting.” American Political science Review 74(1): 78-91.

第九週(4/22):專題演講

第十週(4/29):Candidate Evaluation
Rahn, Wendy M., John H. Aldrich, Eugene Borgida, and John L. Sullivan. 1990. “A Social-Cognitive Model of Candidate Appraisal.” In Controversies in Voting Behavior, 2nd eds. Richard G. Niemi and Herbert F. Weisberg. Washington, D. C.: CQ Press. Pp187-206.
Erickson, Robert S. Michael B. MacKuen, and James A. Stimson. 2002. The Macro Polity. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Ch. 1.

*Miller, Arthur H., Martin P. Wattenberg, and Oksana Malanchuk. 1986. “Schmatic Assessments of Presidential Candidates.” American Political science Review 80: 521-40.
*Weisberg, Herbert and JerroldG.Rusk. 1970. “Dimensions of Candidate Evaluation.” American Political science Review 64(4): 1167-85.
*Lau, Richard R. 1986. “Political Schema, Candidate Evaluations, and Voting Behavior.” In Political Cognition, eds. Richard R. Lau and David O. Sears. Pp. 95-126.

第十一週(5/6):Social Cleavages
Evans, Geoffrey. 2000. "The Continued Significance of Class Voting." Annual Review of Political Science, 3: 401-17.
Inglehart, Ronald and Paul R. Abramson. 1994. “Economic Security and Value Change.” American Political Science Review, 88(2): 336-54.

*Knutsen, Oddbjorn. 2007. “The Decline of Social Class?” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, eds. Russell J. Dalton and Hans-Dieter Klingemann. New York: Oxford University Press. Pp. 457-480.
* Deegan-Krause, Kevin. 2007. “New Dimensions of Political Cleavage.” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, eds. Russell J. Dalton and Hans-Dieter Klingemann. New York: Oxford University Press. Pp. 538-556.

*王甫昌,1998,「族群意識、民族主義與政黨支持:一九九○年代台灣的族群政治」,台灣社會學研究,第二期,頁1-45。
*徐火炎,1998,「台灣的選舉與社會分歧結構:政黨競爭與民主化」,收錄於陳明通、鄭永年主編,兩岸基層選舉與政治社會變遷,台北:月旦出版社,頁127-167。

第十二週(5/13):Ticket Splitting and Strategic Voting
Burden, Barry C. and David C. Kimball. 2001. A New Approach to the Study of Divided Government.” In Controversies in Voting Behavior, 4nd eds. Richard G. Niemi and Herbert F. Weisberg. Washington, D. C.: CQ Press. Pp301-321.
Abramson et al. 2010. “Comparing Strategic Voting under FPTP and PR.” Comparative Political Studies, 43(1): 61-90.

*Carrubba, Cliff and Richard J. Timpone. 2005. “Explaining Vote Switching across First- and Second- order Election: Evidence from Europe.” Comparative Political Studies, 38(3): 260-281.
*Alvarez, R. Michael and Jonathan Nagler, 2000. “A new Approach for Modeling Strategic Voting in Multiparty Elections.” British Journal of Political Science, 30(1): 57-75.
*Fiorina, Morris. 2001. “Balancing Explanations of Divided Government.” In Controversies in Voting Behavior, 4nd eds. Richard G. Niemi and Herbert F. Weisberg. Washington, D. C.: CQ Press. Pp291-301.
*Reed, Steven R. 1999. “Strategic Voting in the 1996 Japanese General Election.” Comparative Political Studies 32: 257-70.
* Cox, Gary W. 1997. Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World’s Electoral Systems. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

第十三週(5/20) Dealignment, Realignment, and Cleavage Mobilization
Miller, Warren and Norman Schofield. 2003. “Activists and Partisan Realignment in the United States. American Political Science Review 97: 245-60.
Mayhew, David R.2000. “Electoral Realignment.” Annual Review of Political Science, Vol. 3, Pp. 449-474.

*Sundquist, James. 1983. Dynamic of the Party System: Alignment and Realignment of the Parties in the United States. Washington, D. C.: The Brookings Institution. Pp. 1-49
*Andersen, Kristi. 1976. “Generation, Partisan Shift, and Realignment: A Glance Back at the New Deal.” In The Changing American Voter, eds. Norman Nie, Sydney Verba, and John Petrocik. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Pp. 74-95.

第十四週(5/27): Party Nationalization
Morgenstern, Scott, Stephen M. Swindle, and Andrea Castanola. 2009. “Party Nationalization and Institutions.” Journal of Politics, 71(4): 1322-1341.
Kasuya, Yuko and Johannes Moenius. 2008. “The Nationalization of Party System:Conceptual issues and alternative district-focused measures.” Electoral Studies27(1):126-135。

*Aleman , Eduardo and Marisa Kellam. 2008. “The Nationalization of Electoral Change in the Americas.” Electoral Studies 27(2):193-212.
*Stokes, Donald E. 1965. “A Variance Components Model of Political Effects.” In J. M. Claunch(ed.), Mathematical Applications in Political Science. Dallas: The Arnold Foundation.
*Caramani, Daniele. 2004. “The Nationalization of Politics : The Formation of National Electorates and Party Systems in Western Europe.” New York: Cambridge University Press.
*Claggett, William, William Flanigan, and Nancy Zingle. 1984. “Nationalization of the America Electorate.” American Political Science Review 78(1):77~91.
*Vertz, Laura L., John P. Frendries, and James L. Gibson. 1987. “Nationalization of the Electorate in the United States.” American Political Science Review 81(3):961-966.
*Kawato, Sadafumi. 1987. “Nationallization and Partisan Realignment in Congressional Elections.” American Political Science Review 81(4): 1235~1250.

第十五週(6/3):Polarization
McCoy, J., & Somer, M. (2018). Toward a Theory of Pernicious Polarization and How It Harms Democracies: Comparative Evidence and Possible Remedies. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 681(1), 234-271.
Somer, M., & McCoy, J. (2018b). Transformations through Polarizations and Global Threats to Democracy. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 681(1), 8-22.
Svolik, M. W. (2019). Polarization versus Democracy. Journal of Democracy, 30(3), 20-32.

第十六週(6/10):Negative Partisanship(I)
Abramowitz, A. I., & Webster, S. W. (2018). Negative Partisanship: Why Americans Dislike Parties But Behave Like Rabid Partisans. Political Psychology, 39, 119-135.
Bankert, A. (2020). Negative and Positive Partisanship in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections. Political Behavior.
Caruana, N. J., McGregor, R. M., & Stephenson, L. B. (2014). The Power of the Dark Side: Negative Partisanship and Political Behaviour in Canada. Canadian Journal of Political Science, 48(4), 771-789.

第十七週(6/17):Negative Partisanship(II)
Bankert, A. (2020). Negative and Positive Partisanship in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections. Political Behavior.
Iyengar, S., Lelkes, Y., Levendusky, M., Malhotra, N., & Westwood, S. J. (2019). The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States. Annual Review of Political Science, 22(1), 129-146.

二、 延伸閱讀(請詳述每週延伸閱讀) Extension readings

上面打*號者為延伸閱讀。 
指定閱讀
待補 
評量方式
(僅供參考)
   
課程進度
週次
日期
單元主題