課程名稱 |
計量經濟學的因果推論與預測 Causal Inference and Prediction in Econometrics |
開課學期 |
109-1 |
授課對象 |
社會科學院 經濟學系 |
授課教師 |
郭漢豪 |
課號 |
ECON5179 |
課程識別碼 |
323EU4300 |
班次 |
|
學分 |
2.0 |
全/半年 |
半年 |
必/選修 |
選修 |
上課時間 |
星期二3,4(10:20~12:10) |
上課地點 |
社科402 |
備註 |
本課程以英語授課。 限學士班三年級以上 或 限碩士班以上 或 限博士班 總人數上限:50人 |
Ceiba 課程網頁 |
http://ceiba.ntu.edu.tw/1091ECON5179_ |
課程簡介影片 |
|
核心能力關聯 |
核心能力與課程規劃關聯圖 |
課程大綱
|
為確保您我的權利,請尊重智慧財產權及不得非法影印
|
課程概述 |
This course is about some fundamental and important ideas in econometrics.
First, the course starts with a review of the basic ideas and history of econometrics.
Second, we discuss the meanings of identification in econometrics. We start with the classical example of identifying simultaneous equations (demand and supply curves). The various identification meanings are closely related to the estimation strategies. We discuss two important types of estimation methods: moment-based and extremum-based methods.
Third, we discuss the endogeneity problems in econometrics, which are common reasons for the failure of identification.
Fourth, we discuss the ideas and differences in the meanings of causality and prediction.
Finally, we discuss frequentist, Bayesian, and Fisherian inferences. This part emphasizes the connection between econometrics and statistics.
No econometrics knowledge is assumed. Each topic will be developed at the beginner level so that the course is self-contained. But a certain level of mathematical maturity is expected (see Wikipedia for interesting definitions of mathematical maturity). Precisely, the prerequisites are
(1) introductory microeconomics;
(2) basic calculus, linear algebra, and statistics.
Essentially, students are expected to know what are market (competitive and non-competitive), demand, supply, differentiation, integration, matrix, probability, distribution, density, expectation (conditional and unconditional), mean, variance, and covariance.
This course is suitable for those who are interested in econometrics and statistics for social sciences. Students who have no training in economics but have solid background in mathematics and statistics are welcome.
|
課程目標 |
This course is about advanced undergraduate to introductory postgraduate econometrics. After the training in this course, hard-working students will be well-prepared for master or doctoral programs at top universities in Asian and western countries, and will have the ability to conduct basic research. |
課程要求 |
Students are expected to review and study the theories developed in classes. |
預期每週課後學習時數 |
|
Office Hours |
|
參考書目 |
Suggested Readings
Econometrics
1. Cameron, A.C., Trivedi, P.K., 2005. Microeconometrics: Methods and Applications. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
2. Durlauf, S.N., Blume, L.E. (Eds.), 2010. Microeconometrics. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke.
3. Durlauf, S.N., Blume, L.E. (Eds.), 2010. Macroeconometrics and time series analysis. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke.
4. Eatwell, J., Milgate, M., Newman, P. (Eds.), 1990. The New Palgrave: Econometrics. The Macmillan Press Limited, London.
5. Hassani, H., Mills, T.C., Patterson, K. (Eds.), 2006. Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 1: Econometric Theory. Palgrave Macmillan, New York.
6. Hayashi, F. 2000. Econometrics. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
7. Lee, M.J., 2010. Micro-econometrics: Methods of Moments and Limited Dependent Variables, 2nd ed. Springer, New York.
8. Mills, T.C., Patterson, K. (Eds.), 2009. Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 2: Applied Econometrics. Palgrave Macmillan, New York.
9. Wooldridge, J.M., 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, 2nd ed. The MIT Press, Cambridge.
Treatment effects
1. Lee, M.J., 2005. Micro-Econometrics for Policy, Program, and Treatment Effects. Oxford University Press, New York.
2. Lee, M.J., 2016. Matching, Regression Discontinuity, Difference in Differences, and Beyond. Oxford University Press, New York.
Statistics
1. Konishi, S., 2014. Introduction to Multivariate Analysis: Linear and Nonlinear Modeling. CRC Press, Boca Raton.
2. Efron, B., Hastie, T., 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference: Algorithms, Evidence, and Data Science. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Model selection and model averaging
1. Claeskens, G., Hjort, N.L., 2008. Model Selection and Model Averaging. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
2. Konishi, S., Kitagawa, G., 2008. Information Criteria and Statistical Modeling. Springer, New York. |
指定閱讀 |
Slides and notes for some topics will be provided. Some chapters of the books in the suggested reading list will be used. In the classes, it will be clear that which chapters of which books are related to the discussions. |
評量方式 (僅供參考) |
No. |
項目 |
百分比 |
說明 |
1. |
Homework |
20% |
|
2. |
Midterm examination |
40% |
|
3. |
Final examination |
40% |
|
|
週次 |
日期 |
單元主題 |
第1週 |
9/15 |
Meanings of identification in econometrics |
第2週 |
9/22 |
Meanings of identification in econometrics |
第3週 |
9/29 |
Moment-based identification and estimation |
第4週 |
10/06 |
Moment-based identification and estimation |
第5週 |
10/13 |
Extremum-based identification and estimation |
第6週 |
10/20 |
Extremum-based identification and estimation |
第7週 |
10/27 |
Endogeneity problems in econometrics |
第8週 |
11/03 |
Endogeneity problems in econometrics |
第9週 |
11/10 |
Midterm examination |
第10週 |
11/17 |
Model selection and prediction |
第11週 |
11/24 |
Model selection and prediction |
第12週 |
12/01 |
Causality in econometrics |
第13週 |
12/08 |
Causality in econometrics |
第14週 |
12/15 |
Frequentist, Bayesian, and Fisherian inferences |
第15週 |
12/22 |
Frequentist, Bayesian, and Fisherian inferences |
第16週 |
12/29 |
Frequentist, Bayesian, and Fisherian inferences |
第17週 |
1/05 |
Frequentist, Bayesian, and Fisherian inferences |
|