課程資訊
課程名稱
序率水文學
Stochastic Hydrology 
開課學期
104-1 
授課對象
共同教育中心  統計碩士學位學程  
授課教師
鄭克聲 
課號
BSE5034 
課程識別碼
622 U3600 
班次
 
學分
全/半年
半年 
必/選修
選修 
上課時間
星期二2,3,4(9:10~12:10) 
上課地點
生工202 
備註
總人數上限:30人 
Ceiba 課程網頁
http://ceiba.ntu.edu.tw/1041BSE5034_StoHydro 
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課程概述

*** 重要公告 -- 本學期序率水文學第一週的上課時間改為星期五(9/18)下午7,8,9節(14:20 - 17:20)。上課教室為生工系館9號教室。

*** This course will be conducted in English if there are foreign students in this class. ***
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Hydrology is a branch of earth science focusing on water-related study. It is also an engineering discipline which deals with storage, discharge, and utilization of water. Almost all variables involved in hydrological processes exhibit certain degree of randomness. Either from a scientific or engineering point of view, understanding and characterizing the random nature of hydrological processes enables us to achieve sound water management practices. Stochastic hydrology is the study about characterizing the random nature of hydrological variables and establishing models that describe the spatial and temporal variations of these hydrological variables. In this course students will learn step by step from characterizing and simulating a single random variable to simulation of a random field which is composed of many correlated random variables in space. Stochastic simulation will be highly emphasized in class since it is the foundation for probability-based risk assessment. Familiarity of stochastic simulation will open a wide window of potential research and application subjects to students.

Topics to be covered:
1. Stochastic simulation (I) Univariate simulation
2. Hydrological frequency analysis (I)
3. Hydrological frequency analysis (II)
4. Stochastic simulation (II) Bivariate simulation
5. Introduction to random processes
6. Modeling the time variation of hydrological processes
7. Stochastic simulation (III) Simulation of random processes
8. Multi-site streamflow simulation
9. Stochastic storm rainfall simulation model (SSRSM) - An introduction
10. Truncated distributions - Truncated gamma distribution
11. Gamma-Markov truncated gamma random process
12. Assessing the impact of climate change on design storms
13. Dealing with uncertainties in hydrological modeling and forecasting
14. Bootstrap resampling 

課程目標
1. To introduce fundamental concept of random variables, random vector and random function, and their applications in hydrology.
2. To demonstrate the stochastic nature of many hydrological variables and processes and how hydrological parameters can be estimated by statistical methods.
3. To discuss the uncertainty involved in stochastic parameter estimation and introduce techniques of stochastic simulation for quantification of uncertainties.
4. To demonstrate how hydrological processes can be characterized using stochastic models.
5. To stimulate and encourage students to participate in class discussions. 
課程要求
待補 
Office Hours
 
參考書目
待補 
指定閱讀
待補 
評量方式
(僅供參考)
   
課程進度
週次
日期
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