課程名稱 |
管理決策 MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING |
開課學期 |
98-1 |
授課對象 |
管理學院 工商管理學系 |
授課教師 |
陳文華 |
課號 |
MBA5002 |
課程識別碼 |
741 U0220 |
班次 |
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學分 |
3 |
全/半年 |
半年 |
必/選修 |
選修 |
上課時間 |
星期五2,3,4(9:10~12:10) |
上課地點 |
管二206 |
備註 |
本課程中文授課,使用英文教科書。 總人數上限:50人 |
Ceiba 課程網頁 |
http://ceiba.ntu.edu.tw/981dm |
課程簡介影片 |
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核心能力關聯 |
核心能力與課程規劃關聯圖 |
課程大綱
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課程概述 |
決策會形塑人生。我們每天都要分析各種情況(或問題),做出各式各樣的決策。有些問題可能簡單到不用大腦就可決定,但,有些則須頗費心思方能找到最佳方案。但良好的決策品質並不保證一定會有好的結果。身為一個(未來)經理人,我們每天都要分析各種狀況,做出各式各樣的決策:應該添購機器設備來提高生產力嗎?現在是尋求投資的大好時機,還是應該再等等看?在擬定這些決策時,我們難得靜下心來,想想我們到底是如何「思考」的。在這個資訊充斥、可用時間又太少的世界,過去最理想的決策模式是理性決策,作這種決策需要廣泛了解問題的每一個層面。實務上,這顯然是一項不可能的任務。
決策領域可大致分成兩部分:規範模型和描述模型。規範性決策科學家開發了一些方法用來做出最佳的決策。描述性決策研究者需要考慮實際做決策時所受到的一些限制。若規範性方法可產生最佳的決策,為什麼還要採用描述性方法呢?我的答案是雖然有大量良好的建議可以利用,但是大多數的人不能遵循它們。為什麼不能呢?因為我們會陷入各種可預測的錯誤中,這些錯誤不僅會破壞我們的直覺,還會阻礙我們執行良好建議的可能性。因此,我們在學習更明智的決策策略之前需要瞭解這些錯誤。
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課程目標 |
本課程的主要目標是(1)協助經理人運用明智的決策程序與決策制定工具,(2)協助經理人瞭解到決策是怎樣形成的,(3)改善經理人的判斷,與(4)改善經理人的決策。首先,我們必須明瞭直覺判斷中的錯誤,意識到可能影響決策的偏差。這種意識將會改善目前的決策程序和產生更有益的結果。本課程將通過展示你的判斷如何系統地偏離理性,試圖揭示你目前的決策程序。本課程也將提供你一些工具使你改變自己的決策程序。最後,本課程將討論一些可用於揭示思維的方法來確保變革持續下去。 |
課程要求 |
Grading Policy
The reading and writing assignments in this class have been designed to maximize how much you learn in the course, not the precision with which I measure how much you have learned. You will rarely be asked a question in class or in writing assignments for which there is a specific right answer; so, all the grading is necessarily subjective. Creativity, insight, and even humor will be highly valued.
The format for the course will be a combination of lecture/discussion and case studies and perhaps one or two guest speakers.
Grades will be determined as follows:
• Decision Making Ideas Diary (1-2 page entries weekly, 5 weeks) 20%
• A 15-20 page Final paper 30%
• Preparation for class discussion:(readings, cases) & web-based
surveys 30%
• Wild Card Course Content Submission (see details below) 5%
• Essay on Moneyball or Complications 15%
Decision Making Ideas Diary:
Create a cumulative MDM journal/diary in Microsoft Word (saved with the name XXXXX MDM.doc, where XXXXX are the last five numbers in your Student ID), writing once biweekly, choosing applications and takeaways from the course. Each bi-week, you may choose from "structured" questions that you may answer or you may choose to examine a "topic" related to the course from your past personal or professional life. I hope you will choose ideas that are particularly relevant to your future work and life. Each biweekly entry should be between 1-2 pages, single spaced, and will be handed in after five biweekly entries. If you desire feedback on your diary attempts, you may hand it in for a pre-grade after 6 weeks. Proofread your diary for typos, and employ good Man Comm skills. Single space, do not double space your entries. Use 12 point font, 標楷體。
Wild Card Paper:
To keep you thinking about and looking for example of the course content all semester long, you are asked to turn in a “wild card.” The definition of a wild card is a picture, advertisement, cartoon, video or audio clip, or current reading (e.g. from The New Yorker or an interesting web site) that classically and pragmatically embodies one of the topics or issues in MDM. From class examples in the first few weeks, you will see what I mean. You should turn in both a “clean” copy of the example (digital preferred), and you should write up a one-pager explaining why this example is a classic (and hopefully a springboard for discussion in class). Please keep in mind that these examples are primarily for class use and hence should be clever and memorable (and perhaps even funny!) but not offensive. The wild card paper can be turned in any time during the semester up to the last class session. If you choose to submit a video clip, it should be delivered in .wmv (Windows Media File) format.
Final Paper:
A substantial research paper (about 15 to 20 pages) need to be submitted. For example, one option is to write a case history of a decision-making disaster, e.g. the Columbia Space Shuttle disaster or the Enron bankruptcy a couple of years ago. Investigate a decision by some organization and write-up a case history of the decision, including the decision making process, and the outcome. Or, you may investigate a sub-topic of the course in greater detail if your investigation includes the reading of a significant book and synthesis, e.g. how to make interviews more valuable. An outline of the topic and its justification as a topic of decision making significance should be sent to the professor by the end of the 7th week (earlier is better). He will OK all topics and give you gentle guidance if he feels the topic is not fruitful. It is OK to work in groups of two, but more will be expected of teams than of single authors. It is encouraged that, if appropriate, you deliver with your paper any media possibilities for making the paper topic into a class example (e.g. digital picture, short video, 2-3 PowerPoint slides).
Essay on a book reading:
What are the important questions and counterintuitive answers that Moneyball (or, alternatively, Complications) suggests for business managers? Write a 3-page essay (single spaced) on how decision making progress in sports or medicine applies to you as a soon to be manager.
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預期每週課後學習時數 |
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Office Hours |
另約時間 |
指定閱讀 |
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參考書目 |
1.Robert E. Gunther, Stephen J. Hoch, and Howard C. Kunreuther, Wharton on Making Decisions, 2004.
2.John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa, Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Decisions, 2002.
3.Max H, Bazerman, Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, Wiley; 6th ed., 2005.
4.Peter Ferdinand Drucker, John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, Howard Raiffa, Alden M. Hayashi, Harvard Business Review on Decision Making.
5.James G. March, Primer on Decision Making: How Decisions Happen, 1994. |
評量方式 (僅供參考) |
No. |
項目 |
百分比 |
說明 |
1. |
Grading Policy |
100% |
•Decision Making Ideas Diary (1-2 page entries weekly, 5 weeks) 20%
•A 15-20 page Final paper 30%
•Preparation for class discussion:(readings, cases) & web-based surveys 30%
•Wild Card Course Content Submission (see details below) 5%
•Essay on Moneyball or Complications 15%
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週次 |
日期 |
單元主題 |
第2週 |
9/25 |
理性與非理性
課程資料請至公布欄下載,謝謝。 |
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